15 UNIT BUILDING HIGH INCOME
With 40 years of experience in the Real Estate business I know the market like the back of my hand. I have seen mortgage rates at 3% and at 17%.
The clear indicators at hand point to a Recession in 2019.
1) Internet sales are killing businesses all over.
2) More stores have closed up and down the busiest of Avenues. (ASTORIA, RIDGEWOOD, MASPETH, REGO PARK, FOREST HILSS ETC.)
3) Rents for Retail stores are out of hand now.
4) 1031Exchange/Investors today still looking for a needle in a haystack. They still want to pay 11 x's income instead of paying 13.5 x's income. Those days are over. If you bought a two family in 1983 for $85,000 dollars today it is worth $1,200,000 at least in Middle Village. That is 32% appreciation per year over a 35 year period plus collecting rents for 35 years. So why are they stuck in their minds not to pay 13.5x's income today? Is it because you can't tell them anything, since they have bought and sold so many properties over the years?
Why are 6 families in Astoria and by Fresh pond road selling at 20x's multiples? Is this a new breed of buyers jumping into the market?
5) In general more people over 65 years of age are working now than ever before. Why? You can not live just on Social Security. You can not live on a $400 per month school pension, or both. Taxes keep going up, water bills keep going up.
6) Many are working two jobs to support a family these days. If these same people want to rent an apartment they better have the income and 700 or better credit score to be accepted by a landlord today.
Single people who would love to buy a home can't afford one. Couples working can't qualify to buy homes and get a mortgage.
7) More young people in early 30's and 40's still living at home and not working today. When I was 12 years old I worked two jobs and today at 71 years of age I am still working. How many more young people will end up collecting food stamps and getting qualified for Section 8 apartments?
Parents taking reverse mortgages to pay off debt, feed the unmarried, or married children not working end up with a terrible disaster in the future when parent(s) are gone. The banks want their money then the house is sold, and the children from ages 30-50 become homeless. Even if there is no Reverse mortgage, if the children do not work, who is going to pay the taxes on the house, the water bills, the homeowners insurance, repairs, and the food to put on the table for themselves and maybe little children they now have?
REALITY WILL HIT MANY PEOPLE IN THE FACE AND HARD LIKE A TIDAL WAVE. INVESTORS WHO FINALLY PAY 13.5 OR A LITTLE LESS WILL LOCK IN A GREAT INVESTMENT RETURN OF AT LEAST 7% CAP PLUS APPRECIATION ON THE BUILDING YEARLY. RENTS ALWAYS GO UP, SO PREPARE TODAY AGAINST THE COMING RECESSION.
A special thank you to Jim Turano-Broker with 40 years of experience to contribute to this important informative article.